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I have calculated that the encounter bonuses do almost nothing
#1
So I was looking at the encounter multipliers you get after a certain amount of encounters and right off the bat something seemed off in my mind.

at the following numbers your multiplier is doubled

Ultra Rare - 400
Legendary - 1250
Shiny - 10000

However, you get +1 in only 1 category, so you need to triple them to see the average amount of encounters needed for the bonus

Ultra Rare - 1200
Legendary - 3750
Shiny - 30000

Now I became really suspicious because the chance of actually finding one of those is greater than the chance of you going through that many battles without finding one

This is where it gets whacky, I ran a simulation of 100 Million encounters (percents and multipliers working correctly, picture attached) and the results seem to imply that getting your encounter multiplier above 0x is so rare that it may as well not even be a feature.

Look at the bottom section of the picture I attached.

Ultra-rare, you should get the multiplier once per 1200 battles on average. For this simulation of 100M encounters, that is 83,333 sets of 1200. Only out of 394 of those sets do you actually get the multiplier. (.47% chance per 1200 encounters)

So what does this imply?

You have to do 253,806 battles on average to get the ultra rare multiplier. You are likely to find 643 ultra-rares before getting the multiplier ONE TIME
You have to do 156,246 battles on average to get the legendary multiplier. You are likely to find 124 legendaries before getting the multiplier ONE TIME
You have to do 106,486 battles on average to get the shiny multiplier. You are likely to find 10 shinies before getting the multiplier ONE TIME

Summary: What should be a really cool feature to prevent people from being "too unlucky", actually almost never occurs at all! You are more likely to find a pokemon before you get the bonus than not.
You may need to lower the numbers required or have it add to all 3 categories every encounter to make this feature work as intended.

So to verify my math I must ask the community: How many people have actually gotten their ultra rare or legendary multiplier above 0?

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#2
(05-07-2016, 06:47 AM)Krigeris Wrote: So I was looking at the encounter multipliers you get after a certain amount of encounters and right off the bat something seemed off in my mind.

at the following numbers your multiplier is doubled

Ultra Rare - 400
Legendary - 1250
Shiny - 10000

However, you get +1 in only 1 category, so you need to triple them to see the average amount of encounters needed for the bonus

Ultra Rare - 1200
Legendary - 3750
Shiny - 30000

Now I became really suspicious because the chance of actually finding one of those is greater than the chance of you going through that many battles without finding one

This is where it gets whacky, I ran a simulation of 100 Million encounters (percents and multipliers working correctly, picture attached) and the results seem to imply that getting your encounter multiplier above 0x is so rare that it may as well not even be a feature.

Look at the bottom section of the picture I attached.

Ultra-rare, you should get the multiplier once per 1200 battles on average. For this simulation of 100M encounters, that is 83,333 sets of 1200. Only out of 394 of those sets do you actually get the multiplier. (.47% chance per 1200 encounters)

So what does this imply?

You have to do 253,806 battles on average to get the ultra rare multiplier. You are likely to find 643 ultra-rares before getting the multiplier ONE TIME
You have to do 156,246 battles on average to get the legendary multiplier. You are likely to find 124 legendaries before getting the multiplier ONE TIME
You have to do 106,486 battles on average to get the shiny multiplier. You are likely to find 10 shinies before getting the multiplier ONE TIME

Summary: What should be a really cool feature to prevent people from being "too unlucky", actually almost never occurs at all! You are more likely to find a pokemon before you get the bonus than not.
You may need to lower the numbers required or have it add to all 3 categories every encounter to make this feature work as intended.

So to verify my math I must ask the community: How many people have actually gotten their ultra rare or legendary multiplier above 0?

As stated in alot counter explanations, 
3:1
Means thrice the encounters to get one on the board.

The Counter at no point was ever meant to boost encounter chances.
It's a looser's trophy.
Back when it was implemented, you were still able to accidentally run from shinies.
Now you can't, counter became obslete, so might aswell remove it completely.

The average encounter Chance for a shiny was 7.5k.
Getting the mere doubled Chance for shinies ( 1x making 0.01 become 0.02) requires 30.000 encounters. 
Thus, you should get 4 shinies before reaching 1x.
Which, would be exactly it's point, that being : not leaving you empty handed if you accidentally ran from one.
(This goes for all counter affected classes)

Now, why do people Stack up their counter nontheless?
Pretty simple, most people either do only event hunting, means, 60minutes for a 0.02 chance.
Or, they're too impatient and doing let's say : 1k on one map, 2k on another etc.
So their effective steps done for one specific shiny, is actually rather low.

Now, there's for sure always the luck involved aswell.

As to lowering the required steps to get a counter boost.... No.
Hunting became already too easy, no need to make it even easier, but well, that's just my thought on it, for i'm one of those Challenge seeking and enjoying players.


TL; DR counter works as it should; No run feature however turned it obsolete.
-2Easy-



M30 - Galliant
#3
For me the legendary counter sometimes gets to x6 before I purposely run away from them. I don't hunt them so I always run away really same for ultra rare unless I see an eevee(lution). Really, if you are doing events it's really horrible luck to get past the 10k counter unless you are purposely running away.  However, regular maps, which I no longer hunt, often had me over the 10k counter on a daily basis where events you can sometimes get 4 shines in that hour, though obviously depends on your internet connection.  IMO, nothing needs to be changed just sometimes you have really bad droughts of no shinies whatsoever for multiple events or several encounters above a 2-4k counters continually. Furthermore, staying in events for the entire hour is best for best results.  Like sometimes you have two shines within 5 minutes and then others you have nothing for 30k steps. Those are extremes but they happen.


But yeah the shiny counter is irrelevant, save to see how bad your luck really is. I find the ultra rare and legendary counter useful on occasion when I want something they are usually well above the 20k-30k counter(not steps).
#4
If you consistently run away from encounters to build the multiplier, you're wasting time. You would save time by using scary trainer everywhere, then manually grinding for specific encounters on the map where you can find them.

Again, all 3 of these multipliers are pointless in the current state, that's the whole reason I spent an hour writing a program to test this.
#5
Actually it helps a little bit stormclaw hasnt gotten a shiny yet and his counter is 11,666(1x) so its not completely useless and hes been hunting shinies so it is a little helpful
мертвая душа
#6
I only run away from anything from shinies because they are they are a waste of time to actually bother to catch them. They are all basically worthless here.
#7
^^Right, the shiny multiplier is the only one that is at least plausible since you get it around 30% of the time per set of 30K encounters. But if you look at the other chance of multipliers, its 2% of the time for legendaries and .5% of the time for ultra rare.


So for legendaries the average amt of encounters to get the multiplier is 3750, so every 3750 battles you have a 2% chance of getting the multiplier........
#8
This entire thing basically confirms without a doubt that the multipliers are so rare compared to getting the encounters themselves, that legendary and ultra rare multipliers are pointless features.
#9
(05-09-2016, 05:18 AM)Krigeris Wrote: This entire thing basically confirms without a doubt that the multipliers are so rare compared to getting the encounters themselves, that legendary and ultra rare multipliers are pointless features.

Once more: 
They are not meant to make hunting easier.
They WERE a counter for times you ran from said classes.
Now that there are pop ups they've turned completely useless.


People expect the counter to be a Boon for hunting, when infact, they were never intended as such.

So scaling the requirements down certainly is the worst way.
Hunting is easy enough.
The counters were always "useless" like this due to their intended use.

Suggestion : Get rid of them. 
-2Easy-



M30 - Galliant
#10
I say keep it. It may have no effect but it is their for our benefit and its not hurting us so keep it plz.
мертвая душа
#11
Why not just tweak it so its valuable but not overpowered, like I said adding too all 3 counters instead of only 1.
#12
No. This game is so easy already that i'm wondering why you even bothered making this thread. You can already just spam r when you hunt which is something you couldn't do before.
[Image: tyranitar_in_dragon_form_by_black_wing24-d47c29u.jpg]

Beat me? Ha, when Tyranitars fly...

~ch17175
#13
Not if on tablet... I can only use tablet that makes hunting a pain becuz of the lag and how annoying it is to do the same hand motion just leave it plz.
мертвая душа
#14
With my luck, I get the multiplier 3 times every 10K steps.

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